Eleven weeks into the NFL season, we're no more sure who's going to the Super Bowl than we were 11 weeks ago. We can be sure about who's not going, a group of teams that includes no surprises. But whoever today correctly picks the last team standing in the AFC's Battle Royal or the survivor from a few NFC strongmen should try shooting at fish in a barrel.
Last year's champions, the New England Patriots, and last year's best team, the St. Louis Rams, are each 5-5. Either would be fortunate to just make the playoffs. The teams that make the playoffs will be lucky to get there with their quarterbacks still walking.
The clearer picture emerges in the NFC, where Tampa Bay and Green Bay will play this weekend to possibly decide which will get home field advantage through the playoffs. That would figure to be the first important decision of the season, as Tampa Bay still hasn't won in freezing temperatures and Green Bay is 5-0 this year at Lambeau Field.
Other decisions in the NFC have been put on hold, possibly for good. Donovan McNabb's broken ankle turns the Philadelphia Eagles from a playoff favorite to a struggling contender. The Eagles have announced the NFL's most dangerous quarterback probably will miss the rest of the regular season, leaving the NFL East leaders vulnerable to the league's dullest team, the New York Giants.
The San Francisco 49ers are looking like the clear leader in the NFC West, as only the Rams might challenge their 7-3 record. However, the 49ers are 0-3 against other teams with seven or more wins. On that basis, one might guess the 5-5 Rams can pull into a race with Kurt Warner returning from injury Sunday. The 49ers still are likely to prevail, but both teams play easy schedules the rest of the way and the Rams are in better shape for a wild card berth than the standings reveal.
The NFC South is pushing hard for three playoff teams. The secret to its success? This year's schedule rotation calls for the NFC South teams to play all the teams in the AFC North, the Bengals' division. The NFC South is 7-0-1 in those games. Tampa Bay boasts the NFL's best defense but is 0-2 against teams with seven or more wins. New Orleans is terrible on defense, 28th against the pass, but 3-0 against teams with seven or more wins. After starting with one win against the Bengals in its first four games, Atlanta is 5-0-1 behind quarterback Michael Vick.
Only one division in the entire NFL is decided. The NFC North, once the NFC Central and, before then, the NFL Central, has played with the same continuous core of teams -- Green Bay, Chicago, Minnesota and Detroit -- since 1966. Except for Detroit, they've all spent long stretches among the NFL's elite teams since then. But the division hasn't been so lopsided since Minnesota dominated in the early 1970s. Green Bay could have clinched last Sunday, in its 10th game, with a win at Minnesota.
Though the Packers couldn't do it, they're as good as in; San Francisco and Tampa Bay look safe; and one anticipates New Orleans because Aaron Brooks is the flashiest quarterback still standing, including Vick. McNabb's injury almost certifies that only one team from the NFC East will make it. That would leave a shootout between the Rams and Falcons for the final spot, with skimpy schedules for both teams predicting a fast race to the end.
The AFC is such a muddle that it's really going to come down to which way the wind blows those kicks. After 10 games, only the Bengals and the expansion Houston Texans have forgotten about playing in January. The six 5-5 teams are all in the thick, a game off the pace of the last playoff spot. Some of those teams are better than others, as the next few weeks will prove.
A fascinating study might be made of the New York Jets, with whom the Bengals size up favorably side-by-side. The Bengals are 22nd in total offense (309.3 yards per game), while the Jets are 23rd (309.2). The Bengals are 18th in total defense (337.1), while the Jets are 26th (362.1).
Don't be too excited, by the way, about the Bengals ranking seventh in pass defense. It's only because fewer passes are thrown against the Bengals than against any other team, since it's easy enough to beat the Bengals by running the ball down their throats. In that sense, the Jets are close to the Bengals' mirror image. But the Bengals are where they are, while the Jets are 5-5 and alive in the playoff chase. Why?
The Bengals are minus 10 in turnovers, while the Jets are even. The Bengals are last in the league, averaging 3.5 yards per punt return, while the Jets lead the league at 17.5. The Jets have played basically the same game as the Bengals, except from better field position and with fewer turnovers. It might be a travesty if the Jets make the playoffs, but they've recovered from a 1-4 start, beating Miami and San Diego along the way.
The Jets aren't alone in the AFC East insofar as they're flawed. Miami leads the division at 6-4 with the league's sixth-ranked defense, but you know running Ray Lucas out there to play quarterback is a problem when the Dolphins are dying to get Jay Fiedler back into the lineup. After finally legitimizing its Super Bowl championship in the eyes of the football world by winning its first three games, New England promptly lost four straight. Some opponents have thrown the Patriots defense off the field, while others have run them off of it. And Buffalo, after 3-13 last year, can't be a serious contender if Drew Bledsoe has to outgun everyone.
Only two AFC teams have won seven games, both in the AFC West. One of them, San Diego, lines up for the rest of the year against Miami, Denver, Oakland, Buffalo, Kansas City and Seattle, the first five of which are playoff contenders. If the Chargers can make it to 10 wins, they'll not only make the playoffs but might beat enough playoff teams to prove they belong.
The AFC's other seven-game winner looks like a huge disappointment when one takes a good look at its performance. Here's where the Denver Broncos rank in the NFL statistics: first in rushing defense, second in total defense, fifth in total offense, eighth in rushing offense, ninth in passing offense and 14th in passing defense. You won't find a more solid profile in the NFL. Yet the Broncos have lost three games. Sometimes they barely make an appearance. If they're counting on Jason Elam to make a field goal between 40 and 49 yards, he's only four-for-nine from those distances, one of the league's worst performances.
Oakland is in playoff position at 6-4, finally putting up a persuasive win two weeks ago against Denver after overtime losses to the 49ers and the Chargers. Figuring Denver should win the West, one would pick Oakland over San Diego as a wild card entrant. But the Raiders wouldn't be a cinch to win a game once they're entered. It's just too hard to trust an outfit that's 23rd in rushing when it needs a run of wins against teams that are competent along the line of scrimmage.
Whether the Pittsburgh quarterback is Tommy Maddox or Kordell Stewart, the Steelers and only the Steelers are going to the playoffs from the AFC North. The Cleveland Browns need to beat a good team once in a while before they can be taken seriously. Baltimore has no offense. And say this for the Bengals: They aren't so bad they could be defeated by an expansion team. That said, only the Bengals are so bad that they don't overlook Houston.
The AFC South, a hodgepodge of misplaced franchises and expansion teams, could boil down to whether Indianapolis is outclassed by Denver Sunday. The Colts stammered to three straight losses before Peyton Manning picked apart Philadelphia's third-ranked defense on Nov. 10. Not only is Manning in fine form, but the Colts defense, which has been a problem for years, ranks seventh in the league under first-year head coach Tony Dungy.
Tennessee, tied with Indianapolis at 6-4, doesn't face an upcoming opponent as good as Denver. But the Titans aren't as good as Indianapolis right now, either. All will be revealed, perhaps, when the Colts go to Tennessee on Dec. 8.
Put down Miami, Pittsburgh, Indianapolis and Denver as AFC division winners, with New England and Oakland taking the wild card spots. But don't put down the remaining contenders, which are too many to mention. They've still got plenty of time to falsify every prediction.
This isn't like any other sport in America. We'll actually need to watch the rest of the regular season to find out who's in the tournament.
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