It's go time, less than a week before an election that might be the most important in our lifetime. Yet is there anyone with live brain cells in the state of Ohio who should vote for George W. Bush?
Just check the numbers: More than one-third of America's job losses have come from Ohio, according to an article last week in The Cleveland Plain Dealer. Two weeks ago an article in The New York Times reported that Ohio's economy is the worst in America. A study this fall said Cleveland is the country's poorest city. Ohio has lost more than 200,000 jobs, and it shows up in every facet of the state's profile.
Under Bush's No Child Left Behind initiative, Ohio school districts have been required to make changes for which they have no money. Cash-strapped schools beg for tax levy support and get doors slammed closed. Bush cut taxes for the rich, shrinking the federal budget, which pushed new expenditures onto the state.
In the end, the presidency of George Bush has been disastrous for Ohio and its people. That's why, days before the election, nearly every voter survey has Kerry winning the state -- and that's considering questionable poll models that might miss new young voters who use cell phones and can't be called. Pollsters also under-gauge a huge Democratic turnout that will be driven by anger over the stolen election in 2000. They're also missing massive registrations done by ambitious, well-funded 527 committees.
Denny White, chairman of the Ohio Democratic Party, estimates there will be about 500,000 new Democrats on the Ohio rolls for this election. In 2000, Al Gore lost to Bush in Ohio by 167,000. So if just half of the new Democrat registrants turn out, our side will win with room to spare.
But all signs say this election, even as we Democrats taste victory, will be messy. For example, Republicans are determined to suppress the Democrat vote. Their latest strategy is to hire more than 3,000 "challengers" across Ohio to stand inside African-American polling places to match names against lists, request that identifications be checked, even judge voters' ages and citizenship. Shrunk down to simple talk, they want lots of black people to feel voting is unpleasant and go home before casting their ballots.
So if you're a Democrat and you want to take back the White House, you need to know that Election Day will be different. While we typically would abhor happening upon a long line at a movie theater or grocery check-out, we need to see people standing around the block trying to vote as a sure victory for average people. There is no doubt. Republicans want fewer people to vote, not more.
Think about it. If every eligible American voted Nov. 2, is there any doubt that John Kerry would win? None. Bush only wins if the turnout in Ohio is largely suburban. How many of these hired Republican "challengers" will be stationed in Wyoming, Mariemont or Anderson Township? None. But go to Avondale, Walnut Hills and the West End and they'll be there. The message is clear: Black people are somehow crooked. They need to be watched over even when they exercise their democratic American right. This Republican strategy is repugnant, and more of us need to say it.
Locally, there are crucial races, and they'll energize voters. Hamilton County Commissioner Todd Portune is fighting to keep his seat, the first a Democrat has won since the mid-1960s. He's earned re-election with hard work, smart policy and an ability to compromise when it's best for the community but stand on principle when it's vital to justice.
The county prosecutor race will also add special spirit to this election. The write-in battle between Democrat Fanon Rucker and Republican State Treasurer Joe Deters will draw city voters in support of Rucker. But will suburban voters, the more they learn about Deters, say, "Forget it?"
In this short prosecutor campaign -- remember, incumbent Mile Allen recently quit the election after getting nailed nailing a female employee -- voters learned Deters brings a scandal of his own to an office already under siege. County residents who once loved Deters are now left wondering about him, with headlines about political scandals in his office and among his subordinates in Columbus. Adding to his mess, he actually hired one of the convicted men from his scandal to work in his campaign.
Additionally, it was learned during a debate at Xavier University, sponsored by the Society of Professional Journalists, that while Rucker would guarantee serving his full term if he were elected Deters would not make such an assurance, saying he could "never say never." So voters must now wonder why they should give their vote to someone who might be using them for image rehab before running for state attorney general just two years down the road.
Toss in a competitive race for county coroner, with Dr. O'dell Owens poised for an upset win, and the likely victory for the repeal of Article 12 in the city charter -- which would protect homosexuals from discrimination -- and urban voting places will be lively in spite of Republican menacing. Only the Cincinnati Public Schools' operating levy looks like a negative draw. You can't have that many people coming out against you when you're trying to make an easy political sell.
But like our yearly Cross-town Shootout, the outcomes of all these races can never really be known until the contests are completed. What we do know is that emotions are high. The future is on the line. Lawyers are on call. "Challengers" will get their odious pay. Voters will wait in lines. Results will take longer than usual. Some will party. Others will commiserate. Ohio will be the key.
PUTTIN' OUT THE BONE appears monthly.
