Photo By Joe Lamb

U.S. Rep. Steve Chabot enters Champs upon announcement of his re-election victory.

As Democrats across the nation and across Ohio swept to victory in a broad array of races for governor, House and Senate, Hamilton County voters bucked the trend, preferring instead to merely dip a toe in the rising tide of political change roiling around them.

While Ohio voters chose Democrat Ted Strickland as the state's next governor by a wide margin, Hamilton County voters stuck with Cincinnati native Ken Blackwell, a Republican whose extreme views on abortion, gay rights and religion kept him consistently behind in the polls for months before the Nov. 7 election and caused the national party to write off his candidacy weeks before.

While most Ohioans preferred Democrat Marc Dann as the state's next attorney general, county voters chose Republican stalwart Betty Montgomery, who was trying to change jobs after years as state auditor.

Most Ohioans also chose to issue a pink slip to U.S. Sen. Mike DeWine, the incumbent Republican, in favor of Democrat Sherrod Brown and decided to elect Democrat Jennifer Brunner as the next secretary of state to oversee the 2008 presidential election instead of Republican Greg Hartmann, although county voters reliably sided with the GOP candidates in those races, too.

Republican incumbents Steve Chabot and Jean Schmidt each appear to have been re-elected to the U.S. House of Representatives in their respective districts, based on unofficial results, even as Democratic challengers easily cruised to victory in other House races nationwide. Die-hard supporters might face the unintended consequence of ensuring Chabot and Schmidt's irrelevancy in the next Congress unless the pair suddenly develops a so far unseen knack for bipartisanship.

"It was a challenging year but that we survived in this environment, I think, says something," Chabot said. "I'm going to go back and work just as hard as I have for the past 12 years."

City Councilman John Cranley, who had challenged Chabot for the seat in Congress, was philosophical about his defeat.

"We tried to make this country better and fight for higher ideals," he said. "This campaign has not been in vain."

Don't blame Bush
A closer analysis, however, reveals that even Hamilton County and Greater Cincinnati aren't immune to the political turmoil racking Republicans nationwide. The once rock-solid Chabot faced his closest race since joining Congress 12 years ago, with Cranley coming within 4 percentage points and 7,500 votes of replacing him in Ohio's 1st Congressional District.

In the 2nd Congressional District, Democrats might yet pull off a razor-thin victory. Schmidt apparently won the seat by a 51-49 percent margin over Democratic challenger Dr. Victoria Wulsin. With a difference of just 2,943 votes separating the candidates and provisional ballots yet to be counted, Wulsin hasn't conceded.

The uncertainty didn't faze Schmidt, who declared victory.

"We've got a lot of work to do," she said Election Night. "This has not been an easy night for Republicans across the nation."

Still, Hamilton County voters chose Democratic candidates in two races and resoundingly rejected a ballot issue that was supported by the Republican establishment.

Former Cincinnati City Councilman David Pepper easily defeated Republican incumbent Phil Heimlich for a seat on the Hamilton County Commission. Pepper beat Heimlich by a 53-47 percent margin, and many local Republicans voted for Pepper despite knowing that his victory would place the county commission under Democratic control for the first time since 1962.

Completing his first term on the commission, Heimlich has been roundly criticized for his go-it-alone style to policy-making, for bullying tactics and for appointing friends and campaign contributors to county boards like the Tax Levy Review Committee. Chief among the complaints, Heimlich pushed in June 2005 to have county officials unilaterally take control of riverfront development along the Ohio River and jump-start the long-stalled Banks project, but it sputtered along unchanged for more than a year until Cincinnati officials became involved again this spring.

Heimlich has tried to couch his defeat with an argument that cold, hard facts don't bear out. He blamed his defeat on the anti-Republican mood that has swept the nation, primarily as a backlash against President Bush and the Iraq War. Statistics, however, show that voters in Hamilton County overall remained true to the GOP.

Tellingly, in heavily Republican areas such as Anderson and Green townships, Pepper got more votes in the county commission race than fellow Democrat Cranley received in his race against Chabot-- meaning some GOP voters made a conscious decision to snub Heimlich by voting for Pepper rather than merely sitting that race out.

As one political observer noted shortly after the final results were tabulated, "Even those people said they don't like Phil Heimlich."

Jail politics
Besides Pepper, Democratic candidate Richard Cordray also bested his Republican challenger in Hamilton County during the race for state treasurer. More importantly, county voters rejected Issue 12 by a 57-43 percent margin. If passed, the measure would have raised the county sales tax by a quarter-cent to pay for a $225 million new jail as well as a rebate on property taxes.

Local progressive groups and the Baptist Ministers Conference mounted a grassroots campaign against the proposal, stating that it didn't earmark funds for substance abuse and other rehabilitative programs. Also, critics disliked the tax's regressive nature that would hit poor residents the hardest while providing huge property tax breaks for wealthy homeowners and owners of large commercial properties.

Photo By Natalie Hager

Phil Heimlich gives a concession speech at the Havana Martini Club during his Election Night party. With him are his wife, Rebecca, and his parents.

Issue 12 failed despite high-profile support from Heimlich, billionaire financier Carl Lindner, Hamilton County Sheriff Simon Leis Jr., County Prosecutor Joe Deters, the police union and others. Supporters spent more than $275,000 on the unsuccessful campaign.

"The people of Hamilton County were not fooled," said Suhith Wickrema, a sales tax opponent. "They rejected failed public policies. This is a victory for ordinary people over the big money of the rich."

Michael Patton, another Issue 12 opponent, added, "The fact that the tax issues for children's services and indigent health care (Issues 13 and 14) both passed shows that the voters will support a levy when it is a comprehensive and effective solution to a problem, unlike the jail tax levy of Issue 12."

So, what lessons -- if any -- can political observers draw from the schizophrenic local election results?

Moderation seems to be the political current driving local elections, according to Gary Wright, a former Procter & Gamble executive who heads the Equality Cincinnati PAC that advocates gay rights and helped to repeal Cincinnati's Article 12 measure two years ago.

"Moderate voters in this region turned their backs on gay bashing and divisive politics," Wright said. "People voted for honest government and a sound economy. That swept out of office two of Cincinnati's and Ohio's most virulently anti-gay politicians, Ken Blackwell and Phil Heimlich." ©