Heading into the 2012 season, there were plenty of questions, and even after 40 games it seems like we haven’t gotten definitive answers.
Question: How will Mat Latos fare at Great American Ball Park?
Answer: So far, Latos has been the same
as his history would seem to indicate. For starters, he’s actually been
better in his first four home starts (1-1, 3.91 ERA) than in his four
road starts (1-1, 5.40). It’s also tough to tell because he is a
notoriously slow starter, putting up a career record of 2-8 with a 5.73
in April and March, versus a record of 27-23 and a 3.10 ERA in the rest
of the season. In five April starts this year, he had a 5.97 ERA and
batters were hitting .307 against him. In his three starts since the
calendar turned, he has a 2.25 ERA and batters were hitting .200.
Q: With Ryan Madson out, how will Sean Marshall fare as the team’s closer?
A: Those results were mixed, as well.
Despite putting up seven saves, the lefty blew one and had to be bailed
out of two more — including the team’s May 19 win at Yankee Stadium. It
looks like Aroldis Chapman has taken over the closer’s duties, moving
Marshall back to being one of the best setup men in the game. Marshall
struggled against right-handed hitters, who hit .365 off of him before
Chapman took over as the closer, though he bailed out Jose Arredondo to
earn a one-batter save on May 21 after Chapman pitched on four out of
five days.
Q: Can Scott Rolen stay healthy and, if not, what’s the plan at third?
A: Finally, something we know the answer
to — unfortunately it wasn’t the answer the Reds wanted.
Rolen played in
29 games and looked even older than his 37 years. With Juan Francisco
in Atlanta, Todd Frazier is getting his shot. Once ranked the team’s top
prospect, he’ll never get a better chance at this level.
Q: Who bats leadoff and who bats cleanup?
A: Dusty Baker’s best answer has been
Brandon Phillips — to both questions. Unfortunately, that’s against the
agreed upon rules. The Reds haven’t had a legitimate leadoff man in
recent memory, and Phillips doesn’t fit that profile either — his .300
on-base percentage through May 20 is much lower than you’d like for even
an average player, much less a leadoff man. Problem is, there isn’t an
obvious replacement. Of the regulars, only Joey Votto, Jay Bruce, Ryan
Hanigan and Frazier have better OBPs.
Q: What about left field?
A: The platoon of two right-handed
batters that hit righties better than lefties? It’s worked about even
worse than expected. Ryan Ludwick has looked more like the guy who
played with the Pirates and Padres than the one who raked for the
Cardinals at GABP. Chris Heisey has been one of the game’s best
pinch-hitters, but as an everyday player he’s not lived up to hopes.
Q: Has Johnny Cueto graduated to ace status?
A: Beating CC Sabathia in Yankee Stadium sure didn’t hurt.
Q: Are Homer Bailey and Mike Leake ready to stay in the rotation?
A: You hear all the time about “made up”
stats, but few stats are as made up as the “quality start.” By
definition, a quality start is when a pitcher goes at least six innings
and gives up no more than three earned runs. It was literally made up by
sportswriter John Lowe. This season, Bailey has turned in quality
starts in six of his eight starts: good for a 2-3 record a 4.34 ERA.
It’s not exactly the dominance we all expected for Bailey, but it’s a
good start. Meanwhile, Leake was 0-5 with a 6.21 ERA before looking
great against the Braves May 21, throwing eights innings of two-hit,
one-run ball.
Q: Can Bronson Arroyo bounce back?
A: His fastball velocity is actually down
from a year ago, but he’s also using it less, throwing more cutters and
sliders than last year. So far it’s worked, with his strikeout rate
higher, walk rate much lower and his home runs allowed back to a normal
rate for him. He’s never going to blow you away with his numbers, but
he’s back to being what he’s always been, and that’s good news for the
Reds.
And then there’s the biggie:
Q: What to do with Aroldis Chapman?
A: It appears he’s your new closer, but
that brings up even more questions: Does he close all season? Can he
pitch as many as four days in a row? Will he stick there even when Nick
Masset and Bill Bray return?
Yes, this team is flawed. But what’s easy to forget when you only watch one team’s games is that every team (well, maybe not the Rangers) is flawed — and as we saw last year, even flawed teams can win it all.
CONTACT C. TRENT ROSECRANS: letters@citybeat.com, ctrent@cnati.com or on Twitter @ctrent
