New work requirements to get federal food assistance will cause 900 premature deaths in Ohio by 2040, according to a new analysis.
If administrative costs dramatically increase state expenses and force Ohio to abandon the program altogether, those deaths will soar to 23,000, according to a report released Tursday by the Center for American Progress.
The numbers are similarly harrowing for other states.
Passed last summer, President Donald Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act gave $1 trillion worth of tax cuts to the richest 1% of Americans over 10 years. It cut nearly $1 trillion in Medicaid spending over the same period.
The bill also cut $186 billion from the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, or SNAP, which provides food assistance to 1.45 million Ohioans and 42 million Americans.
SNAP benefits are modest and require pretty low income to qualify.
As a general matter, a single mother of two kids would have to earn $34,645 or less to qualify for assistance that amounts to just $6.28 per person, per day in Ohio.
The law passed by Republicans last summer achieves savings in the program through changes that already have been or will be implemented this year.
One is placing work requirements on groups of recipients that had been exempt. They include people between 55 and 64, veterans, the homeless, kids aging out of foster care and families with kids over 14.
When tried with Medicaid, work requirements failed in achieving their claimed goals, but they did succeed in reducing the number of people receiving benefits.
In February, SNAP work requirements took effect in Ohio, with previously exempt beneficiaries required to show proof they were meeting them on March 1.
In Ohio, 63,000 adults stand to lose benefits because they’re between 55 and 64, or their kids are older than 14, according to an analysis by the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities using data from the Congressional Budget Office.
It’s estimated that at least 2.4 million Americans will lose federal food benefits over 10 years due to the work requirements.
And that doesn’t count veterans, the homeless, and people aging out of foster care who now face work requirements because the Congressional Budget Office didn’t include those populations in its estimate.
For many, losing food benefits will make chronic health problems worse.
“Research has consistently shown that access to SNAP is linked with many positive health outcomes,” the Center for American Progress report said.
“Beyond reducing food insecurity, which itself is associated with a lower-quality diet and multiple chronic conditions such as kidney disease and coronary heart disease, increased SNAP access has been associated with slower growth in diabetes prevalence.”
It added, “People who receive SNAP are more likely to report very good or excellent health compared with similar-income populations not receiving benefits. SNAP is also linked to better access to preventive care, fewer hospitalizations, and lower health care expenditures. Perhaps most importantly, research has shown reduced rates of mortality among SNAP participants.”
Ultimately, losses in health result in preventable deaths.
Thursday’s report updated estimates from July made by medical school researchers at the University of Pennsylvania and New York University.
Where the original estimate was 93,000 preventable deaths by 2040, the Center for American Progress revised that number down to 70,000 because fewer Americans are now estimated to lose SNAP because of the work requirements.
In Ohio, that means at least 900 people will die who wouldn’t have if the new work requirements weren’t implemented, according to the report.
Changes starting in October could cause many, many more.
The One Big Beautiful Bill Act also increases administrative expenses on states and penalizes them if they don’t keep error rates below what many experts say is an impossibly low threshold.
The Center on Poverty and Inequality at Georgetown University Law School says that some states will face much higher burdens than others.
It estimates that Ohio could face nearly $400 million in additional costs to maintain its SNAP program.
That 268% increase would be well in the top half of states — and it’s an open question whether Ohio’s gerrymandered legislature would pay the extra money or abandon the program.
Many Ohioans would die unnecessarily if it did — 22,900 by 2040, according to the estimate by the Center for American Progress.
That has governors calling on Congress to undo that part of the law.
“Changes in funding policies for the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Programs (SNAP), combined with disruptions caused by the 2025 federal government shutdown, could put SNAP in jeopardy across the country if states and territories do not receive relief,” the National Governor’s Association said in a Jan. 14 statement.