“A couple words or phrases were used by (Gov. Mike DeWine) in his press conference yesterday — ‘shocking,’ ‘a red tide across Ohio’ and ‘record hospitalizations,’ ” said Hamilton County Commissioner Denise Driehaus as she opened today’s COVID-19 press briefing.
Since last week, Driehaus said there have been 1,327 new cases of COVID reported in Hamilton County, and noted that in the past four weeks, cases have jumped from 490 to 613 to 954 last week and now to more than 1,300. Hamilton County Public Health Commissioner Greg Kesterman said his office saw 175 COVID cases last Friday alone.
“What we are seeing is an exponential increase in positive cases of COVID-19 in Hamilton County,” Driehaus said.
During the briefing, Dr. Richard Lofgren, president and CEO of UCHealth, said that the number of cases in the region is doubling every 10 to 14 days at a “rate that we actually haven’t seen before,” and that the spread is diffuse, not just in highly concentrated urban areas. That is translating to an increase in hospitalizations — from 90 to 200 since the beginning of October. In the past week, there have been 41 new hospitalizations.
“The number of positive cases and regional hospitalizations are higher than they have ever been for Hamilton County,” said Driehaus. “And, ominously, as social activities begin to move indoors because of the weather, the worst may be yet to come.”
But, Lofgren said, “despite this uptick, the health systems continue to be very much prepared.” Regional hospitals have been actively collaborating since the pandemic took hold in March and he says they now seem to have enough PPE and other supplies. He also noted that plans are in place to reactive overflow sites for patients — if they are needed — but that hospitals themselves have internal surge capacity. And there are no current plans to stop elective surgeries.
However, with the uptick, there is some concern Hamilton County could move from red to purple on the Ohio Public Health Advisory System; purple is the most extreme warning and indicates severe exposure and spread of the coronavirus.
Since no county in the state has turned purple before, Driehaus said it will be up to the governor to determine what, if anything, that means in terms of restrictions. Currently, the advisory map says the recommendation for those in purple counties is to “only leave home for supplies and services.”
“The governor’s map has seven indicators and we have been sitting with five of those seven indicators, flagged and of concern,” said Health Commissioner Kesterman. “There are two indicators in which we’re still not flagged and I would say we’re very close, particularly with hospital admissions, to seeing that indicator shift to being flagged.”
“It’s a little bit unsure if we’ll go (purple) this week, but, if we continue on the trend we’re currently on, it’s inevitable that we will eventually turn purple here in Hamilton County,” he continued.
Before a county turns from red to purple, it is given a star on the weekly Thursday Public Health Advisory System report, which means it has hit six or more of the seven metrics. If, by the following week, the metrics haven’t change, then the county changes color.
At most, Hamilton County would be declared red with a star this Thursday.
“Everybody in this community needs to understand what this trend looks like and how close we are to getting into this purple zone,” said Driehaus. “And take action yourselves.”
That action, as always, is to mask up, wash your hands and socially distance.
She also noted that some additional sacrifices will likely be necessary, like limiting informal gatherings with friends and family or wearing your mask if those gatherings do take place. This is especially important to consider as we enter the holiday season, with events like Thanksgiving.
Kesterman said that of the confirmed COVID patients his office had contacted, 53% reported they had been to work, retail shopping, dining out, to parties with friends, on vacation travel, to sporting events, to bars and nightclubs, to weddings, religious settings, amusement parks and/or protests in the past 14 days.
But that doesn’t meant they got COVID at those events, Kesterman said. Someone can be infected with COVID anytime during the 14 days before becoming symptomatic (or before having a positive test) and can contract it anywhere in the community.
He said the more activities you participate in, the more likely you are to get sick. But that you can still do these things, “it just takes more effort” to stay safe. For example, if a restaurant doesn’t seem to be following COVID protocols, leave. You can also report a businesses and file a complaint at hamiltoncountyhealth.org.
“The only way to prevent this county from going into that purple range, as we see cases increasing exponentially, is to do what we know works: wear the mask, wash your hands and socially distance,” Driehaus said.
This article appears in The Fall Guide.