Democratic Votes Matter on March 4

Everyone likes to feel important. Between now and March 4, Ohio voters are going to feel very special indeed as they move front and center in the spotlights of Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama.

With the contest for the Democratic presidential nomination closer than anyone would have predicted just a few months ago, it’s now proven wise that Ohio didn’t join the stampede of states that moved their primaries earlier in the widespread belief the race would be wrapped up after Super Tuesday in early February and their votes wouldn’t matter in the selection process.

Because Democrats so far have been almost evenly divided between the two senators, the contest still is a toss-up and the pressure is mounting.

After Obama’s recent surge in several primaries and caucuses, most political consultants agree that Clinton must score victories in both Ohio and Texas on March 4, as well as in Pennsylvania on April 22, just to stay in the game. If she pulls off a triple win, then it becomes a battle over the super-delegates — 795 party insiders — which probably will play out all the way to the party’s convention in August in Denver.

The first trips here in an expected deluge from Clinton, Obama and their respective families began last week. Former First Daughter Chelsea Clinton tried to sway voters at Sully’s Tavern downtown, Clinton stopped by for a coney at a Skyline Chili in Oakley and Michelle Obama stumped for her husband at Music Hall. Meanwhile, both campaigns are inundating the airwaves with TV commercials.

After the next two weeks, most Cincinnatians likely will be tired of the excessive wooing.

But there’s an important plus to the hubbub this campaign season.

After seven years, Bush fatigue is galvanizing voters and turnout among Democrats is skyrocketing. A Time magazine analysis found that a total of 14.6 million people cast votes for either Clinton or Obama during the Super Tuesday contests, compared to 8.4 million for John McCain, Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee on the GOP side. In other words, the Democratic race attracted about 73 percent more voters that the Republican one, which bodes well for the party in November.

Clinton probably has the edge among Ohio’s Democrats. She does well among blue-collar workers, the so-called “lunch bucket Democrats” who’ve been hurt by the globalization of the economy and out-sourcing of jobs. Their support is odd, though, because part of their hurt is due to the North American Free Trade Agreement and other trade policies that her husband, Bill, pushed so strongly while president in the mid-1990s.

Regardless, one poll late last week gave Clinton a 21-point lead over Obama in the Buckeye State. The latest polls in Texas show a dead heat between the two.

So screw the cynics and research the candidates, because your vote really does matter on March 4.

This article appears in Feb 20-26, 2008.